Destined to Fail

Every so often, there seems to be a new startup that launches a 1.0, backed by a Series A. There's a beautiful website. Maybe it contains 3D graphics, with nice animations and gradients. The types of things that really intrigue designers who will share them in their circles.

The product is often not revolutionary – but an alternative take on an existing concept, with consideration for UX, and a sprinkling of delight. There's a USP, usually a feature that's in an unrelated app, but baked into this one. Oh, and collaboration of course. It's packaged up into a subscription at ten bucks a month per person.

I've seen this film before.

The company will have a period of growth and then will have to begin targeting enterprise users to make any kind of profit. The product never really enters the mainstream consciousness that's required and layoffs begin. The big players of those existing concepts will shoehorn any USPs in with minimal effort. The company might pivot, but that doesn't gain any traction either. It will then cease to exist and the investors don't see a return. A few years later, the founder re-appears with a new idea. People on social media will reminisce over old screenshots of the product with "Does anyone remember x?"

So I am incredibly wary when I see these products appear. It's usually a hassle to migrate to them in the first place – especially if you have a team. Everything is great at first, and maybe the product is really receptive to your feedback, because they can move quickly. But then the product starts to change shape. A new shiny may appear, but not wanting to be burned again your company will likely go with the safe alternative that IPOed long ago.

By all means, don't let me tell you what to do. Go and sign up for those products, download them, and enjoy them. Just don't expect them to last.